Statement by EES President Dr Ingo Friedrich, July 19th, 2024

Why the West Will Win

Ok, as Germans and Europeans we will probably have to live with a new US President named Donald Trump. Yes, and so? Will this mean the downfall of Ukraine and the West?

Of course not, but we have to draw the right conclusions from it.

1. Europe must be sustainably strengthened

Strengthening Europe must encompass all areas: Economically, militarily, scientifically and politically, including the - extensive - abolition of the unanimity principle in the Council of Ministers. Trump and Putin can only be impressed by strength. The EU's swift agreement on people and policies after the European elections in 2024 is a good indication that the signs of the times have been recognized. A strong Europe with at least 470 million inhabitants and one of the largest internal markets in the world that speaks with one voice is a factor that no power in the world can avoid.

2. The “Global West”, i.e. the USA, Europe and “Western” states such as Japan, Australia and Canada, must work together in a new way and with a division of labor

If - as announced - the USA turns its attention more to East Asia in the future, then Europe itself will have to “grow up” and largely solve its European tasks by itself. A key security issue, the USA's nuclear protective shield for Europe, will - according to everything that can be heard from Trump's circles - be maintained. This is of course of central importance for Europe's security. But Europe will have to deal with conventional deterrence by itself in the future, which will mean that the defense budget in Germany will be closer to three than two percent in the future.

3. Trump will make a deal with Putin

The expected deal that Trump will make with Russian dictator Putin on Ukraine can only be a rather difficult “compromise.” There will be no clear winners or losers in the classic sense. But at the end of this conflict NATO will be stronger, the Russian dictator will be weakened in front of his people (because he was unable to ensure that Ukraine became a satellite state of Russia) and the appeal of Western democracies to people in dictatorial states will continue to shine in an unbroken fashion. That is why the promise to Russian citizens that they too can one day live democratically and free must always be maintained.

In this sense, the West will also strategically win this second “cold war” against Putin.